Poker Myths That Need to Die

Introduction to Poker Myths

Poker is filled with persistent myths and misconceptions that can significantly impact your gameplay and results. Understanding these false beliefs is the first step toward developing a winning strategy.

Common Poker Myths Debunked

Some of the most widespread poker myths include:

• “Move up where they respect your raises”: Higher stakes players may actually call more and outplay you postflop
• “Online poker is rigged”: The speed of online play creates illusion of patterns, but outcomes are random
• “Pocket pairs always hit sets”: Pocket deuces face higher pairs 41% of the time at full tables
• “Near misses mean a big win is coming”: Slot machine and poker outcomes are completely random
• “You can control the outcome”: Each hand’s result is determined the moment cards are dealt

Why Poker Myths Persist

The Importance of Debunking Myths

Believing poker myths leads to:

• Poor bankroll management: Chasing losses at higher stakes
• Tilt decisions: Playing emotionally after bad beats
• Leaky strategies: Overplaying weak hands expecting miracles
• Stunted growth: Blaming external factors instead of improving

As noted in poker strategy resources, “Online poker sites gain nothing from rigging games because they charge a capped rake regardless of who wins.” Understanding this helps focus on actual skill development.

Building a Myth-Free Poker Mindset

To avoid falling for common poker myths:

1. Study verified poker mathematics and probabilities
2. Track your results over significant sample sizes (10k+ hands)
3. Join reputable poker clubs with verified fair play
4. Focus on decision quality rather than short-term results
5. Regularly review and analyze your hand histories

Remember: “In tournaments, it is an insanely luck-based type of game… but when you look at massive field tournaments, luck is going to play a huge and decisive role.” This understanding helps maintain proper perspective during inevitable downswings.

Myth: Move Up in Stakes Where They Respect Your Raises

This commonly repeated poker advice contains dangerous flaws that can devastate your bankroll. Let’s examine why moving up stakes for “more respect” often backfires spectacularly.

The Flawed Logic Behind This Myth

The advice suggests that:

• Higher stakes players fold more to aggression
• Your raises will win more pots uncontested
• You’ll avoid frustrating calls from loose players

In reality, as PokerNews explains: “While those who frequent higher stakes games tend to be more knowledgeable… they are also more likely to call or three-bet you in position and then outplay you on later streets.”

How Higher-Stakes Players Actually Respond

Skill Versus Luck at Higher Stakes

Key differences in higher stakes games:

• Skill gap widens: Opponents study GTO and hand reading
• Less passive play: Your continuation bets get challenged
• More aggression: You’ll face more three-bets and check-raises
• Thin margins: Small mistakes become costly at bigger stakes

As noted in poker strategy discussions, “In tournaments, it is an insanely luck-based type of game… but when you look at massive field tournaments, luck is going to play a huge and decisive role.” This applies equally to cash games – the higher you go, the more skill dominates.

Statistical Reality of Poker Outcomes

Important mathematical truths:

• Variance appears in short-term clusters (“10,000 heads in a row”)
• Long-term results converge to expected value
• Higher stakes don’t change fundamental probabilities
• Edge comes from exploiting mistakes, not forcing folds

At serious poker clubs, you’ll find players understand that “online poker sites gain nothing from rigging games because they charge a capped rake regardless of who wins.” The same logic applies to stake levels – the game’s integrity remains consistent.

Better Alternatives to Moving Up

Instead of chasing “respect”:

1. Improve your hand reading and range analysis
2. Study optimal bet sizing for different board textures
3. Develop a balanced three-betting strategy
4. Work on your postflop decision-making
5. Build your bankroll properly before moving up

Remember: Poker is about making +EV decisions, not getting opponents to fold. As you improve, you’ll naturally find yourself moving up stakes – not because opponents respect you more, but because you’ve earned the skill edge required to beat each level.

Myth: Online Poker is Rigged

The persistent belief that online poker is rigged stems from fundamental misunderstandings about probability, game mechanics, and business incentives. Let’s examine why this myth persists and why it’s mathematically impossible.

Origins of the Rigged Poker Myth

Three key factors fuel this misconception:

• Speed of play: Online deals 100+ hands/hour versus 20-30 live
• Visibility of patterns: Humans naturally detect nonexistent sequences
• Confirmation bias: Players remember bad beats but forget favorable outcomes

As PokerNews explains: “Claims of online poker being rigged stems from the speed at which online games are dealt.” The accelerated pace makes variance more noticeable.

How Poker Sites Ensure Fairness

The Business Case Against Rigging

Online poker sites have zero incentive to manipulate games because:

• Capped rake model: “They charge a capped rake regardless of who wins”
• Reputation risk: Getting caught would destroy their business
• Regulatory consequences: Would lose gaming licenses worldwide
• Player trust: Essential for long-term profitability

At reputable poker clubs, game integrity is paramount because their business depends on player trust.

Online vs Live Poker: Hand Frequency Comparison

Key statistical realities:

• Identical probabilities: Same deck, same rules
• Sample size illusion: Online players see more hands faster
• Memory distortion: Bad beats stand out more online
• Confirmation bias: Players ignore when they benefit from variance

As noted in gambling research: “There is no such thing as near misses… They are absolutely no indication that the machine is about to pay out.” The same applies to poker hand distributions.

Why The Myth Persists

Psychological factors maintaining this false belief:

1. Human tendency to find patterns in randomness
2. Selective memory of negative outcomes
3. Misunderstanding of probability over small samples
4. Desire to blame losses on external factors
5. Lack of understanding about RNG certification

Remember: “It’s impossible for players to control the outcome of a game or a machine.” The same randomness that creates bad beats also creates miracle wins – it’s all part of poker’s mathematical foundation.

Myth: Poker Machines Aren’t Tested Properly

The belief that poker machines operate without proper testing and regulation is one of the most persistent myths in gambling. In reality, these machines undergo rigorous scrutiny to ensure fairness and transparency.

Regulatory Standards for Poker Machines

Poker machines are subject to strict regulations worldwide:

• National Standards: Must comply with technical requirements for security and integrity
• Return to Player (RTP): Legally mandated between 85%-92% in most jurisdictions
• Randomness Certification: Must use certified Random Number Generators (RNGs)
• Monthly Audits: Regular testing to maintain compliance

As gambling authorities confirm: “All poker machine’s hardware, software, artwork and mathematics are tested by the Office of Liquor and Gaming and Regulation’s Technical Unit.”

Testing Facility Procedures

Common Misconceptions About Reliability

Let’s debunk frequent false beliefs:

• “Near misses mean a jackpot is coming”: “There is no such thing as near misses. The symbols are just pictures that are displayed randomly.”
• “Hot and cold machines”: “Venues do not know when a poker machine is going to pay out due to the random nature of each spin.”
• “Bet size affects outcomes”: “It’s impossible for players to control the outcome of a game or a machine.”
• “Testing is infrequent”: Rejection rates are high because “issues are caught on a regular basis.”

At regulated gaming venues, these machines must pass all tests before being approved for public use.

Why Proper Testing Matters

Rigorous testing protects:

1. Players: Ensures fair odds and random outcomes
2. Operators: Maintains license compliance
3. Regulators: Upholds industry standards
4. Manufacturers: Preserves reputation

Remember: “The outcome of each spin is determined as soon as players hit the play button.” The extensive testing process guarantees this randomness remains uncompromised.

Myth: Near Misses Indicate an Upcoming Big Win

The belief that near-miss outcomes in poker machines predict future jackpots is one of gambling’s most persistent – and dangerous – misconceptions. Let’s examine why these close calls are purely random occurrences.

The Psychology Behind Near Misses

Our brains are wired to detect patterns, even when none exist:

• False pattern recognition: Humans naturally seek meaning in random events
• Anticipation effect: Near misses trigger dopamine release similar to wins
• Gambler’s fallacy: Mistaken belief that outcomes “balance out” over time
• Selective memory: Players remember near wins but forget non-remarkable spins

As gambling authorities confirm: “There is no such thing as near misses. The symbols are just pictures that are displayed randomly during play.”

How RNGs Actually Work

Why Near Misses Are Meaningless

Key reasons why near misses don’t predict anything:

• Visual deception: “The symbols are just pictures” – they don’t represent actual closeness
• Random distribution: Outcomes follow strict probability laws, not patterns
• No connection: “The outcome of each spin is determined as soon as players hit the play button”
• Regulatory compliance: Games must maintain certified randomness

At regulated gaming venues, these systems are rigorously tested to ensure complete randomness.

The Danger of Believing in Near Misses

This myth leads to:

1. Chasing losses: Players continue betting expecting an “imminent” win
2. Increased risk-taking: Misinterpreting near misses as skill-based
3. Problem gambling: Reinforces the illusion of control
4. Financial loss: Players invest more after seeing “almost” wins

Remember: “Venues do not know when a poker machine is going to pay out due to the random nature of each spin.” The same principle applies to near misses – they’re simply random occurrences with no predictive value.

Myth: Poker Machines Return a Fixed Amount to Players

The belief that poker machines are programmed to pay out specific amounts to individual players is one of the most misunderstood aspects of gambling mathematics. Let’s examine how Return to Player (RTP) percentages actually work.

Understanding RTP Percentages

Key facts about RTP:

• Long-term average: RTP represents theoretical returns over millions of spins
• Not individual guarantees: “Venues do not know when a poker machine is going to pay out”
• Standard ranges: Typically 85%-92% in clubs/hotels, 85%+ in casinos
• House edge: The inverse of RTP (e.g., 90% RTP = 10% house edge)

As gambling authorities confirm: “Poker machines are programmed to return between 85% and 92% to players” collectively, not individually.

How RTP Varies Across Machines

The Randomness of Individual Outcomes

Critical realities about poker machine payouts:

• No memory: Each spin is completely independent
• No patterns: “There is no such thing as a ‘hot’ poker machine”
• No targeting: Machines don’t adjust based on individual players
• Instant determination: “The outcome of each spin is determined as soon as players hit the play button”

At regulated gaming venues, these principles are strictly enforced through certified RNG technology.

Why This Myth Persists

Psychological factors that maintain this false belief:

1. Misunderstanding of probability over short sessions
2. Confirmation bias focusing on winning streaks
3. Human tendency to seek patterns in randomness
4. Misinterpretation of RTP as a short-term guarantee
5. Failure to recognize volatility’s role in outcomes

Remember: While “poker machine games are programmed with multiple variations,” these are preset mathematical models that maintain complete randomness in individual outcomes. The RTP percentage only becomes accurate over extremely long periods of play across all users of a machine.

Myth: Players Can Control the Outcome of a Game

The belief that players can influence poker or poker machine outcomes through skill or strategy alone is one of gambling’s most dangerous misconceptions. Let’s examine why chance always plays the decisive role.

The Role of Chance in Poker and Poker Machines

Key realities about game outcomes:

• Randomness is fundamental: “The outcome of each spin is determined as soon as players hit the play button”
• No memory effect: Previous hands/spins don’t influence future ones
• Mathematical certainty: House edges and probabilities are fixed
• Certified unpredictability: RNGs ensure genuine randomness

As gambling regulators confirm: “It’s impossible for players to control the outcome of a game or a machine.”

Why Skill Alone Can’t Guarantee Wins

Debunking Common Control Strategies

False beliefs about influencing outcomes:

• Bet sizing patterns: “A poker machine can’t be tricked into winning by changing how much you bet”
• Timing of play: “There is no such thing as a ‘hot’ poker machine”
• Superstitious rituals: No physical action affects RNG outcomes
• Pattern recognition: “Near misses… are absolutely no indication” of future results

At regulated gaming venues, these systems are designed specifically to prevent any player influence.

The Danger of the Control Illusion

Believing in control leads to:

1. Problem gambling: Chasing losses with “surefire systems”
2. Financial overextension: Betting beyond means due to false confidence
3. Skill misattribution: Crediting wins to ability rather than variance
4. Addictive behaviors: Reinforcing the gambling feedback loop

Remember: While poker involves skill elements, even WSOP champion Doug Polk acknowledges luck’s decisive role in tournaments. For poker machines, the randomness is absolute and mathematically enforced.

Myth: Past Results Predict Future Performance

The belief that previous poker outcomes influence future results is one of the most pervasive and dangerous misconceptions in gambling. This “gambler’s fallacy” leads players to make poor strategic decisions based on flawed assumptions about probability.

The Gambler’s Fallacy in Poker

Key aspects of this cognitive bias:

• Misunderstanding independence: Each hand/spin is statistically independent
• False pattern recognition: Seeing sequences where none exist
• Probability miscalculation: Believing outcomes “balance out” short-term
• Emotional reasoning: Letting recent results cloud judgment

As PokerNews illustrates: “If you tossed a coin ten times, you’d see some seemingly crazy patterns… But after 1 billion coin tosses, the outcomes would converge on being 50-50.”

Why Short-Term Results Mislead

The Importance of Long-Term Strategy

WSOP champion Doug Polk emphasizes: “In tournaments, it is an insanely luck-based type of game… but when you look at massive field tournaments, luck is going to play a huge and decisive role.” This reality demands:

• Bankroll management: Withstanding inevitable variance
• Emotional discipline: Avoiding tilt from short-term results
• Process focus: Judging decisions rather than outcomes
• Continuous learning: Improving edge over time

At serious poker clubs, successful players understand that “past results and their effect on future results” is largely a myth in the short term.

Practical Implications

To avoid the gambler’s fallacy:

1. Track hands played, not just sessions won/lost
2. Review decisions independently of results
3. Understand true probabilities, not perceived patterns
4. Focus on skill development over “getting even”
5. Recognize that variance can last thousands of hands

Remember: While poker involves skill, even the best players experience extended downswings. The key is maintaining proper perspective – what matters isn’t whether you won the last hand, but whether you made the optimal play.

Myth: Poker is Purely a Game of Skill

While poker undoubtedly requires skill, the belief that it’s entirely skill-based is a dangerous oversimplification. The truth lies in the delicate balance between strategic decision-making and unavoidable variance.

The Skill-Luck Spectrum in Poker

Poker exists on a continuum between skill and chance:

• Cash games: 60-70% skill, 30-40% luck in long run
• Tournaments: 40-50% skill, 50-60% luck (higher for large fields)
• Short-term: Luck dominates (even pros can lose for months)
• Long-term: Skill emerges (but never eliminates variance)

As WSOP champion Doug Polk observes: “In tournaments, it is an insanely luck-based type of game… but when you look at massive field tournaments, luck is going to play a huge and decisive role.”

How Luck Decides Tournaments

Why Variance Can’t Be Eliminated

Even the world’s best players face:

• Downswings: 100,000+ hand losing streaks are common
• Bad beats: Pocket aces lose 15% of the time vs random cards
• Coolers: Top pair vs better top pair happens frequently
• Bubble pressure: ICM distortions force suboptimal plays

At serious poker clubs, players understand that “continued success at poker over the long haul requires great skill,” but short-term results are heavily luck-dependent.

Practical Implications

To navigate poker’s dual nature:

1. Accept variance as inherent to the game
2. Focus on decision quality, not just results
3. Maintain proper bankroll management
4. Avoid results-oriented thinking
5. Study to improve your skill edge

Remember: While skill determines long-term profitability, luck decides short-term outcomes. The best players aren’t those who never lose, but those who make mathematically optimal decisions regardless of immediate results.

Myth: GTO (Game Theory Optimal) is the Ultimate Strategy

While GTO has revolutionized poker strategy, the belief that it’s the perfect, unbeatable approach is fundamentally flawed. Understanding its limitations is crucial for real-world success at the tables.

The Reality of GTO in Live Play

Key limitations of pure GTO:

• Human opponents aren’t optimal: Most players deviate significantly from GTO assumptions
• Information asymmetry: Solvers know exact ranges – humans don’t
• Computational limits: Even modern solvers simplify complex game trees
• Dynamic adjustments: Real games require constant adaptation GTO can’t provide

As poker theorists note: “You do not need a strategy profile that is robust against every strategy… many strategies aren’t realistic in the real world.”

How GTO Differs From Chess Engines

The Adaptability Imperative

Successful players combine GTO foundations with:

• Exploitative adjustments: Targeting opponent weaknesses
• Dynamic ranging: Updating hand distributions in real-time
• Meta-game awareness: Adjusting to table dynamics and player types
• Emotional intelligence: Reading non-GTO behavioral tells

At competitive poker clubs, the best players use GTO as a baseline, not a bible, recognizing that “there is no one perfect strategy in 6 player NLTH.”

Practical GTO Implementation

To effectively use (not worship) GTO:

1. Learn fundamental GTO principles as your foundation
2. Identify when opponents deviate from equilibrium
3. Adjust exploitatively while maintaining balance
4. Focus on high-frequency spots first
5. Remember that solvers provide answers, not understanding

Remember: GTO is a powerful tool, but as poker legend Doyle Brunson noted, “Poker is a people game played with cards, not a card game played with people.” The human element will always require adaptability beyond any mathematical model.

Conclusion: Separating Fact from Fiction in Poker

Throughout this series, we’ve dismantled some of poker’s most persistent myths – from misconceptions about machine payouts to overestimating the role of skill in short-term results. Let’s consolidate these insights to build a more accurate understanding of the game.

Key Myth-Busting Takeaways

• Randomness rules: Each hand/spin is independent – “hot streaks” and “due wins” don’t exist
• Skill has limits: Even WSOP champs acknowledge luck’s decisive role in tournaments
• GTO isn’t gospel: Optimal play requires adapting to human opponents, not just solver outputs
• Short-term ≠ long-term: Variance dominates brief sessions; skill emerges over thousands of hands
• Machines can’t be beaten: RNGs ensure complete randomness despite “near miss” illusions

Developing a Poker Truth Framework

Continuing Your Poker Education

To further sharpen your critical thinking about poker:

1. Study verified resources like Poker Solvers Explained
2. Analyze your hands objectively using tracking software
3. Join reputable poker clubs with serious players
4. Focus on decision processes rather than short-term results
5. Recognize cognitive biases that distort poker reality

Remember: As Doug Polk emphasizes, poker success comes from “continued success over the long haul,” not magical thinking about systems or guaranteed outcomes. The players who thrive are those who respect both the mathematical realities and human elements of the game.